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A unique poll of the world’s science academies has overturned long held preconceptions about where the real challenges lie, showing that issues such as pandemics and terrorism are low on the list of global concerns.
A unique poll of the world’s science academies has overturned long held preconceptions about where the real challenges lie, showing that issues such as pandemics and terrorism are low on the list of global concerns.
At the national level, concerns about education dominate, though richer countries put the ageing population as their number one concern.
At the global level, climate change is the top concern, though relatively poor countries are more optimistic it can be tackled than richer ones.
The Conference on Biodiversity of the IAP - the global network of science academies - took place at the Royal Society in January as part of its 350th Anniversary celebrations and provided New Scientist with a unique opportunity to canvass the opinions of scientists from both the developing and developed world.
The results of the poll will be published in the 17 April issue of New Scientist
Unsurprisingly, climate change topped the concerns of the 70 scientists from 62 academies when asked to look ahead to the most pressing issues at the global level in 2020.
Food security also came high on the list for the academies of both high and lower income nations, with 51 respondents making it their top global concern for 2020.
Other environmental concerns were water shortages and loss of biodiversity - both aggravated by growth of population.
But there were surprises. Relatively poorer countries, which will bear the brunt of climate change, were more optimistic that governments will reach an effective agreement to tackle climate change: two respondents were very confident and 20 reasonably confident, compared with zero and seven among richer respondents.
Water security was low down on the list of global concerns, being highlighted by 14 of the relatively poorer respondents and none of the richer.
Pandemics also came surprisingly low in the poll of global concerns (only two respondents mentioned them as national concerns, and 8 as global concerns) - perhaps because the recent swine flu was less serious than feared.
But the low ranking of terrorism (one respondent, both at the global and national level) perhaps indicated that, in the developing world, it affects far smaller numbers than endemic poverty - even though the latter, despite its devastating effects, is far less newsworthy.
Education is highlighted as one of the most significant concerns at a national level. This is true for the richer countries (15 respondents out of 77) .and even more so among the lower income countries. (28 respondents out of 117)
The public's perception of science is ambivalent, despite the extent to which it is the key to our prosperity.
Only seven of the 27 richer countries said there was a high degree of trust, with another 13 trusting science to some extent. Among the poorer countries, 11 out of 42 said there was a high degree of trust, with 23 reporting trust to some extent.
No one across the whole survey thought that their fellow countryman have a high degree of mistrust in science, and only one (rich, European) respondent considered that they were mistrustful to some extent.
Note that in the voting for national and global concerns, each respondent was asked to name three issues of concern.
Please refer to: www.newscientist.com